Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.3%
No 90.3%Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 12:14 PM UTCFeb 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
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Manifold MarketsWill a term limit be placed on the US Senate before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTerm limit for US Supreme Court justices enacted in 2026?
FutuurWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This is about whether Trump succeeds in breaking the two term presidential term limit, either by being a candidate in 2028, or not giving up power after the 2024 term is up
- NOT breaking the limit looks like: two or more candidates, not including Trump, run in 2028 and then in 2029 the winner is in power and Trump leaves the White House.
- Or Trump leaves office early for any reason such as health, political loss or prosecution or flight.
- Even if he is overseas claiming to be the rightful president, if he's gone and not in control of the levers of power then NO
- If Trump tries a bunch of YES like things but doesn't succeed and both the election happens as usual and Trump loses power at inauguration, then this can still NO.
- Its about whether he succeeds at going against the traditional two term limit.
