Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed 99%Leader of 10 outcomes
Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed 99%Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 24, 3:11 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
(full indictment here)
- In August 2023, Chutkan set trial for March 4th, 2024.
- This was close to federal prosecutors' proposal of January 2, 2024, whereas Trump's team had suggested April 2026.
- On February 2, 2024, Judge Tanya Chutkan said she would not schedule a trial until the DC Circuit Court of Appeals decided whether Trump was immune from prosecution.
- After that court unanimously ruled that Trump was not immune Trump appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled on July 1 that former presidents have "some immunity from criminal prosecution" for their "official acts" made during their presidency.
- As a result, on August 27, the special counsel issued a superseding indictment that maintained the same four charges but omitted some specific allegations.
