Talarico and El-Sayed combined margin of victory of 10% or more?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection11dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.3%
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5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 22, 26, 11:10 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES if James Talarico (texas senate) and Abdul el sayed (Michigan senate) combined margin of victory is 10% or more.
- Margin of victory is their vote percent total minus the second place candidates vote percent total.
- If they lose, their margin of victory will be a negative number.
- For example if Talarico wins by 4% and el sayed by 7%, this market will resolve yes.(11% more than 10%)
- If Talarico wins by 3% and el sayed by 3%, this would resolve no (6% less than 10%)
- If Talarico loses by 2% and el sayed wins by 2%, then this would resolve no (-2+2+0, which is less than 10)
