Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.9%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 24, 26, 5:40 PM UTCApr 29, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June 30th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsIf traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $4.25 for the week ending June 29, 2027?
ForecastExIf traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $3.25 for the week ending June 29, 2027?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the end of April 2027.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
