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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
Manifold Markets

Saxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?

PoliticsOne-OffEuropeElection12mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Below - 1 10.8%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters

2

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Stale
Jun 18, 26, 12:57 PMJun 18, 27, 9:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Below - 111%

Rules

n = number of seats AfD wins in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election.

Manifold Markets
  • V = highest valid votes cast for Ulrich Siegmund in any single Minister-President ballot where he's a candidate, across the first government-formation process after that election.
  • Resolves to V − n
  • Abstentions, invalid ballots, and votes for other candidates don't count toward V.
  • Resolves N/A if Siegmund is never a candidate in any Minister-President ballot before a new government is formed.

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Rules

n = number of seats AfD wins in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election.

Manifold Markets
  • V = highest valid votes cast for Ulrich Siegmund in any single Minister-President ballot where he's a candidate, across the first government-formation process after that election.
  • Resolves to V − n
  • Abstentions, invalid ballots, and votes for other candidates don't count toward V.
  • Resolves N/A if Siegmund is never a candidate in any Minister-President ballot before a new government is formed.