Current community forecast
Above 4 32.2%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 12:57 PM UTCJun 18, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ulrich Siegmund become the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt by the end of the year (2026)?
Manifold MarketsWill the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?
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PolymarketNext Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiWho will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?
KalshiNext minister president of Saxony-Anhalt?
Manifold MarketsRules
n = number of seats AfD wins in the 6 September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election.
- V = highest valid votes cast for Ulrich Siegmund in any single Minister-President ballot where he's a candidate, across the first government-formation process after that election.
- Resolves to V − n
- Abstentions, invalid ballots, and votes for other candidates don't count toward V. Resolves N/A if Siegmund is never a candidate in any Minister-President ballot before a new government is formed.