Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 29, 25, 8:59 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Will direct-to-consumer (DTC) pharmaceutical advertisements (pharma ads) on television (TV) be banned in the United States by the end of 2026?
- Resolves YES if any of the following are true at 11:59pm on Dec 31, 2026:
- ads are banned by act of Congress
- ads are banned by executive order
- ads are banned by federal regulation
- any of the above bans has been made but is under a judicial stay at the specified time
Open markets
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $560.1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-10.5pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8M
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Total Vol
- $14.9K
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.8pt60.2%
- 8–11B+6.3pt9.7%
- 11–14B-0.1pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
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- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026? resolve?
- Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Pharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will direct-to-consumer (DTC) pharmaceutical advertisements (pharma ads) on television (TV) be banned in the United States by the end of 2026?