Will Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
One-OffRegulationPoliticsUS Politics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 41 minutes ago
Feb 15, 26, 11:44 AM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PredictItRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if prediction markets are banned in the United States before 31 December 2026.
- A ban is defined as a federal prohibition that prevents the operation of prediction market platforms or makes it illegal for U.S. residents to trade on prediction markets.
- State-level bans or restrictions do not trigger a YES resolution.
- The market resolves NO if prediction markets continue to operate legally under federal CFTC oversight through 31 December 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the CFTC, Congress, or federal courts establishing a nationwide ban.
