Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 25, 8:32 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 9:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
If any part of their ecosystem is banned - chat app, use of model weights, etc - this resolves as yes
- Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Government agencies or branches banning DeepSeek will not be considered as part of the resolution.
- The focus is on a wider national ban beyond government agencies/branches.