Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 97.9%
Forecasters
122
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 25, 12:48 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
@/Bayesian/openai-ipo-before-2027
- @/Bayesian/openai-ipo-before-2028
- @/Bayesian/openai-ipo-before-2029
- Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on when the actual IPO occurs, not when an IPO date is announced.