Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 25, 12:45 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Barack Obama publicly announces his candidacy for a third term as President of the United States before January 1, 2028.
- It resolves NO if he does not make such an announcement by that date.
- The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." Barack Obama served two full terms as President from 2009 to 2017, which would constitutionally prohibit him from being elected to a third term.
- Considerations
- For this market to resolve YES, Obama would need to either:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028? resolve?
- Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria