This market resolved: Thorsten Frei (95.5%)
Resolved: Jul 30, 2026, 1:41 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastThorsten Frei 95.5%+4.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 days ago
StaleJul 19, 26, 12:27 AMJul 30, 26, 1:41 PM
Trends
95.5%
1.1%
1%
1%
0.9%
0.6%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the person who is officially elected as the next permanent leader (Chairman/Fraktionsvorsitzender) of the joint CDU/CSU parliamentary group (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag), succeeding Jens Spahn following his resignation.
- Interim Leadership: Alexander Hoffmann, who took over as acting leader in the interim following Spahn's resignation, will not qualify for the resolution of this market unless he is formally elected by the parliamentary group as the permanent leader.
- Sources: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group website or major German news outlets such as Tagesschau or Der Spiegel.
- Timing: The market will resolve as soon as the permanent successor is officially elected by the group's members.
- On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt15.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.5M
- 24h Vol
- $987.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro32.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt4.9%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+2.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.5M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt14%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio+0.4pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.7M
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt45.3%
- Marco Rubio-3.0pt21.1%
- Ron DeSantis-0.2pt5.3%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $58.7M
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- What will Trump say during his rally with Darline Graham?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader?
- Manifold Markets prices Thorsten Frei at 96% as of July 31, 2026.
- When does Next CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader resolve?
- Next CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader is scheduled to resolve on July 30, 2026.
- How is Next CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria