Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 91%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 26, 1:18 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 2:14 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next James Bond (after "No Time To Die") be played by a woman?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Bond girl?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
PolymarketWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRules
1 Callum Turner
- 2 Jack Lowden
- 3 Jack Barton
- 4 Someone Else
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the first official announcement from Amazon MGM Studios, Eon Productions, or a major reputable Hollywood trade publication (such as Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, or Deadline) confirming the actor cast to play the next James Bond (007) in the official film franchise (often referred to as "Bond 26").
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+0.3pt100%
- $25M+0.5pt100%
- $50M+1.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.7M
- 24h Vol
- $491.4K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt50.4%
- October 31-3.0pt27.8%
- September 30+1.0pt12.2%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Democrat+16.0pt82%
- Communist / Communism+17.0pt79%
- MAGA / Make America Great Again+9.0pt77%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.6pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt14%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHITX-15 House winner?
- Bobby Pulido+6.0pt59.2%
- Monica De La Cruz-4.0pt40.8%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $252.7K
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- What will Trump say this week?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Will Donald Trump issue a public apology?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next Bond?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Next Bond resolve?
- Next Bond is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Next Bond settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: 1 Callum Turner