Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.8%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 30, 23, 9:36 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the Prime Minister on January 1st 2030 be Labour?
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PolymarketRules
Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/5414/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if the UK Prime Minister on January 1, 2030 is a member of the Labour Party.
- Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.