Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 14, 25, 4:32 AM UTCApr 30, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the next Bond film make at the box office?
Manifold MarketsNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actor cast as the villain
KalshiNext James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl
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Manifold MarketsWho will sing the next James Bond film theme song?
Manifold MarketsRules
[image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- NOTE: I'm adding this higher bar because I want to capture "the sort of casting that would annoy people"—if she shows up as a cameo in the background, it really doesn't matter.
- So if she says any words, that automatically is enough to resolve YES (even if it's a tiny role).
- But if she's a key part of any single scene (e.g., you see her in peril in some action scene), that resolves YES as well.
- My intuitive bar will be roughly "someone be certain to notice her role in the movie if they were looking for it" (if most people watching the movie would have no clue who her character is, e.g., a background cameo, I don't want to resolve it YES).
Open markets
Europe
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+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-2.0pt84.2%
- Yes+2.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $905.2K
- 24h Vol
- $132.7K
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- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.6pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD78%
- SPD-0.5pt22%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? resolve?
- Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? is scheduled to resolve on April 30, 2027.
- How is Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: [image]Resolves YES if Lauren Sanchez has a speaking role in the next major James Bond film, or if she's centrally on screen for any scene (even if the role is non-speaking).