Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 24, 2026, 12:03 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecast
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years 20.2%Leader of 70 outcomes
Forecasters
162
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 days ago
StaleDec 18, 23, 5:45 PMDec 17, 27, 6:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years20%
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Javier Milei is bringing a new style of leadership to Argentina.
- This is a collection of a ton of simple binary markets about what may happen during his first term of four years!
- Have fun betting even 1m on each, then tune in to your notifications system to get updated as we see how things go over the next few years! Best of luck to Argentina no matter where that resides.
- Things he did during the entire term, including before creation of this market, all count, based on the beginning of his term; for example, if he has already left Argentina during his presidency, then the claim about him leaving would YES.
- In general the claims end in Dec 2027 at the normal time of the succession of whoever wins the next election.
- Most claims relating to a "term" relate to the original planned term of 4 years; if that is changed, we still cover that time period as best we can preserving the intent, which is always to make the claim as "meaningful" as possible. i.e. to avoid resolving on technicalities only a lawyer would care about, but rather, as long as it doesn't go against the written text, to go by what is meant by the term. i.e. if we say "he dies from the bite of a poisonous snake" we would not be pedantic and say "actually, only venomous snakes can kill him; poisonous is a term for something which if you contact/eat it, you can die".