Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 15, 22, 6:45 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is Earth flat?
PolymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsMarathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves once I have the opportunity to view the Earth from space and can confirm the answer directly with my own eyes.
- I'll require that we be in orbit or otherwise going "around" the Earth so that I can confirm it's actually a ball and not just a circle.
- Upper atmosphere or a brief suborbital trajectory is not conclusive.
- I need to be able to see the continents changing as my perspective changes.
- I'll do my best to ensure that I'm looking through a real window and it couldn't secretly be a TV screen.