Is it extremely likely Democrats will win the house in 2026 midterm elections?
39.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes, Democrats will win a clear majority 89%+39.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+39.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 3, 26, 6:46 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each option will resolve YES or NO independently based on official certification and election returns from the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections (concluding with the seating of the 120th Congress in January 2027).
- The official seat count will be verified via the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives or major election reporting consensus (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ).
- The total voting membership of the U.S. House of Representatives is 435 seats (218 required for an outright majority).
- Options resolve as follows:
