Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 79%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingApr 14, 24, 6:02 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die during his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiRules
Donald Trump, when will he die?
- New answers will be added as the man survives.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which year will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In which year will Donald Trump die? resolve?
- In which year will Donald Trump die? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is In which year will Donald Trump die? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Donald Trump, when will he die?