Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
77
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 25, 8:03 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Will Donald Trump die during his term?
- For the purposes of this question, this closes on January 20, 2029 regardless of whether Trump has done something to extend his term, postpone elections, etc… Cause of death does not matter, if he’s dead he’s dead.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump die during his term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump die during his term? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump die during his term? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Donald Trump die during his term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Donald Trump die during his term?