Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastRiemann Hypothesis before P vs NP 69.2%-5.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+19.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 7:59 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 3:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiAt least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRules
Each option will resolve independently based on the chronological order in which the remaining Millennium Prize Problems are solved.
- A problem is considered "solved" when there is broad consensus in the mathematical community that a correct proof or disproof (including a valid counterexample) has been established.
- The Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) does not need to have officially awarded the $1 million prize for the problem to count as solved.
- Resolution Outcomes:
- For an option representing "Problem A before Problem B":
- Resolves to YES if Problem A is solved chronologically before Problem B.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.9pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $69.3M
- 24h Vol
- $341.6K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+2.0pt75.8%
- 2-4.0pt23.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No95%
- Yes+2.9pt5%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $8.3K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-14.0pt30%
- Above 1-5.0pt19%
- Above 2-1.0pt7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $472.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.1K
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what order will the remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved??
- Manifold Markets prices Riemann Hypothesis before P vs NP at 69.2% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does In what order will the remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved? resolve?
- In what order will the remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is In what order will the remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each option will resolve independently based on the chronological order in which the remaining Millennium Prize Problems are solved.