In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?
AIOne-OffEntertainment1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 60.3%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 28, 24, 9:21 AM UTCJan 4, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
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EG give it a good movie script, and it generates a movie more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as long as it's pretty good.
- Script question:
- @/SamuelKnoche/in-early-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-2x8ud6ld4f
- The intention of this question is to tease out what difficulties people expect for this question to resolve Yes:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script? resolve?
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script? is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2028.
- How is In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: EG give it a good movie script, and it generates a movie more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as long as it's pretty good.