In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
EntertainmentOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 64.5%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsOscar Winner: Best Picture
KalshiThe Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRules
Similar to the main market, but the following are allowed:
- Giving the AI a full script as a prompt, written by either human, AI, or both.
- Any other inputs.
- Pictures, 3d renders of characters, video clips, even entire other movies, as long as the majority audio-visual output is not present in the input.
- Any editing of the movie after the AI creates it, as long as the movie is still predominantly AI generated.
- The quality criteria are the same.