In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
EntertainmentOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 52.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiHighest grossing movie in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Similar to the main market, but the following are allowed:
- Giving the AI a full script as a prompt, written by either human, AI, or both.
- Any other inputs.
- Pictures, 3d renders of characters, video clips, even entire other movies, as long as the majority audio-visual output is not present in the input.
- Any editing of the movie after the AI creates it, as long as the movie is still predominantly AI generated.
- The quality criteria are the same.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid? resolve?
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Similar to the main market, but the following are allowed: