In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?
One-OffMiddle EastPoliticsBusiness & Corporate3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.7%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 2, 22, 7:36 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I be wowed by whatever SSI releases in August?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on Mars, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsNEOM SC vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club
PolymarketNEOM SC vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club - Halftime Result
PolymarketNEOM SC vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club - Second Half Result
PolymarketRules
Based on Scott's article here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-8122?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then? resolve?
- In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on Scott's article here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-8122?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email