If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.1%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 9, 24, 11:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment and conviction by the Senate will not count as being found guilty of a crime for the purposes of this market.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026? resolve?
- If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment and conviction by the Senate will not count as being found guilty of a crime for the purposes of this market.