If Trump wins, will he or any member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution by the 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.4%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 10, 24, 11:11 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, in the event of Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election, either he or a member of his cabinet criticize the Constitution or call its validity into question after his inauguration but before the 2026 midterm elections.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- N/A if Donald Trump does not become the President.
- By criticize, I mean either referring to the Constitution negatively (e.g. "wrong", "rubbish", "lousy", "sub", "bad", etc), or calling for all or parts of it to be suspended and/or ignored.
- The statement should also include the word "Constitution" or some variation (e.g. "constitutional")
- If the statement simply says the Constitution is incomplete but does not refer to it negatively, that is not enough for a YES.
