If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?
EconomyOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine5y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 22, 8:47 AM UTCJan 1, 32, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Update 2024-Jan-06:
- I don't think Ukraine counts as "annexed", so I resolved the other market to NA.
- We can re-open this market, and extend the date until 2031 (or whenever GDP data is available for 2030).
- Original Criteria
- This is part of a conditional forecast.
- This version is about Ukraine's GDP given Russian NOT annexing them this year.
