Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingNov 1, 22, 11:55 PM UTCNov 8, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve the next time reliable media report that North Korea has attempted to detonate a nuclear weapon -- whether a test or offensive attack.
- The market resolves to YES if reliable media report that the test was successful, and NO otherwise.
- https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-north-korea-attempt-to-detonat
- for definitions of "reliable media" etc. If no such attempt is made by market close (Nov. 8, 2027), this market will resolve as N/A. (In case of delays in reporting, it's the date of the detonation that counts, not the date of the report.
