If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
AIOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.2%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 5:28 PM UTCApr 7, 31, 5:27 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome, or if AI has an ok outcome because of a pause, human enhancement, a non-routine effort prioritizing alignment as a blocker on capabilities rather than happening alongside capabilities as a second priority, or some non-AI route to a transhumanist future.
- For example, if OpenAI or Anthropic's strategy worked, this market would not resolve N/A; they both have a "safety team" in a capabilities org, rather than a capabilities team in an alignment org, and are not pursuing alternate paths for a transhumanist future.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if alignment is easy, and NO otherwise. "Alignment is easy" means 6 or easier on the ten levels of alignment difficulty.
