If AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
AIOne-Off11y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66%
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Updated 14 minutes ago
Apr 7, 26, 12:13 PM UTCJan 1, 38, 1:13 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This resolves N/A if ASI does not have an OK outcome or if a pause is not part of the reason, and otherwise YES if a new AI paradigm is part of the reason for ASI having an OK outcome, and NO if it is not.
- Definition of OK outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A new AI paradigm is any AI paradigm that is not deep learning.
- This can include one that is already known to science - there would still be novelty in making it ASI-capable, when currently it only appears that deep learning can do that first.
