If a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.8%
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 26, 12:38 PM UTCDec 31, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
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This resolves N/A if ASI does not have an OK outcome or if a huge alignment is not part of the reason, and otherwise YES if a new AI paradigm is part of the reason for ASI having an OK outcome, and NO if it is not.
- Definition of OK outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A huge alignment effort is an unusual amount of effort being put specifically into alignment, as a separate project blocking capabilities, above business-as-usual, corresponding to a willingness to give up on two years of capabilities lead time in favour of alignment; "making alignment your top priority and working really hard to over-engineer your system for safety".
- If MIRI's agent foundations had worked perfectly, that would count; if there was a global ASI Project that took as long as it needed, that would count; if Anthropic RLHF'd Opus to support CEV, that would not count (the alignment is institutionally an optional extra on a capabilities project, aiming for an acceptable threshold of safety, rather than overengineering it).
- A new AI paradigm is any AI paradigm that is not deep learning.
