Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSuperintelligent 66.6%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 3:52 AM UTCMar 17, 40, 3:51 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
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KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
Resolves N/A if there is no huge alignment effort, or if there is not an okay outcome from AI.
- Otherwise, resolves at the level at which AI progress stalled out.
- An okay outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A huge alignment effort is an unusual amount of effort being put specifically into alignment, as a separate project blocking capabilities, above business-as-usual, corresponding to a willingness to give up on two years of capabilities lead time in favour of alignment; "making alignment your top priority and working really hard to over-engineer your system for safety".
- If MIRI's agent foundations had worked perfectly, that would count; if there was a global ASI Project that took as long as it needed, that would count; if Anthropic RLHF'd Opus to support CEV, that would not count (the alignment is institutionally an optional extra on a capabilities project, aiming for an acceptable threshold of safety, rather than overengineering it).
