If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
AIOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.9%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 21 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 6:10 PM UTCApr 7, 31, 6:08 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if
- this OK outcome is because of an AI pause
- OR the transhumanist future is achieve through non-AI technology
- OR humans are enhanced as part of the process by which alignment is solved
- OR there is a nonroutine effort for alignment, with AI being made by an organisation that makes alignment a top priority, treating it the primary function of the organisation and as a blocker on capabilities rather than something that can be done alongside capabilities.
