If AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
AI
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastSuperintelligent 81%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 26, 26, 4:34 PM UTCDec 31, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
Resolves N/A if AI going into the Future is built on deep learning, or a son-of-deep-learning that is not at all under human control, or if there is not an okay outcome from AI.
- Otherwise, resolves at the level at which AI progress stalled out.
- An okay outcome:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- A new paradigm is any paradigm that is not deep learning.
- This includes currently known paradigms; being powerful enough to cause an okay outcome is a novel