If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will the Supreme Court have more than nine justices before Jan 20, 2033?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:52 AM UTCJan 20, 33, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if, at any time before January 20, 2033, more than nine justices are serving on the U.S. Supreme Court at once.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.
