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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?
How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?

How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?

PoliticsOne-OffElectionEurope3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
>=50
>=50 82.2%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

25

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 15 hours ago

Stale
Jul 14, 24, 7:21 PMJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

>=5082%

Rules

The Conservatives won 121 seats in the 2024 general election.

Manifold Markets
  • How many will they win in the next one?
  • If the Conservative party splits into multiple parties, or some MPs defect to other parties, the party that is considered the "real" Conservative Party will be the one who the largest number of the 121 MPs elected in July 2024 are members of.

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Rules

The Conservatives won 121 seats in the 2024 general election.

Manifold Markets
  • How many will they win in the next one?
  • If the Conservative party splits into multiple parties, or some MPs defect to other parties, the party that is considered the "real" Conservative Party will be the one who the largest number of the 121 MPs elected in July 2024 are members of.