How many days will the Panama Canal remain closed due to military conflict during Trump's presidency?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
0 80%Leader of 7 outcomes
0 80%Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 31, 25, 7:17 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background The Panama Canal is a critical maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, handling about 5% of world maritime commerce.
- The United States transferred control of the canal to Panama in 1999 under the Torrijos-Carter Treaties.
- While there have been various diplomatic and economic discussions regarding the canal's operations, there is currently no indication of military tensions that would lead to its closure.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the number of consecutive days the Panama Canal remains completely closed specifically due to military conflict during Donald Trump's presidency.
- The closure must be directly attributed to military actions, combat, or armed conflict, not due to other factors such as maintenance, strikes, or natural disasters.
- For resolution:
