Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:25 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore January 2028 89%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
47
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 4:27 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 7, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @ORA9UAlgdI (this market)
