Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.1%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 8:44 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 8:44 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- As of late 2025, there is no confirmed release date for ChatGPT-6, and OpenAI has explicitly stated it will not arrive in 2025.
- This market resolves YES if OpenAI releases a product officially named "ChatGPT6" (or any variant like "ChatGPT-6", "ChatGPT 6", etc.) by December 31, 2027.
- Resolution will be based on official OpenAI announcements, press releases, or product availability on OpenAI's website or official channels.
- The market resolves NO if no such product is released by the deadline.
- On October 18, 2025, OpenAI officially confirmed that GPT-6 will not ship this year, and the company continues to refine GPT-5 and its reasoning variants while preparing the infrastructure for the next generation.