PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 77%+0.5pt
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$71
Liquidity
$4.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
21.0% / 25.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
37
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Dec 12, 25, 6:29 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anduril release a product or service with a name that references Smash Bros by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
PolymarketWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
PolymarketWill Apple release a Macbook with cellular connectivity before 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product.
- Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.
- The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above+2.0pt99%
- $71,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $70,500 or above+2.0pt99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.6M
- 24h Vol
- $836.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+33.0pt85.2%
- 180-199-16.5pt13.9%
- 200-219-4.7pt1%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027-2.0pt67%
- Before March 2027+3.0pt20.8%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.6%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $77,223.84 target
- No54%
- Yes46%
- Total Vol
- $333.3K
- 24h Vol
- $173.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- 91° or above+8.0pt95.2%
- 89° to 90°-9.0pt1%
- 87° to 88°-1.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89%
- OpenAI+0.1pt9%
- Google+0.3pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 10, 2026?
- Will Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 10, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 11, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Sep 10, 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 11, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Apple release a new product line before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 77% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? resolve?
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.