PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 70.3%
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$169
Liquidity
$5.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
29.0% / 30.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 12, 25, 6:29 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes30%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 71% | — | $169 | $5.2K | 4 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets91% match · auto | — | 55% | — | — | — | 52 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]
5mo
55%
45%
Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product.
- Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.
- The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$169Jul 227d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product.
- Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.
- The resolution source will be official information from Apple.