Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2026 30.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 25, 10:57 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
PolymarketWill Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla Cybertruck be available in Europe?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiWill Kraken's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve based on official announcements from Tesla or verifiable reports of the Cybertruck's discontinuation.
- The discontinuation date will be considered the earliest date when:
- Rebrand: The product name is changed to something substantially other than Cybertruck, OR
- Discontinuation: Tesla officially announces the end of Cybertruck production with no plans to restart, OR
- Internal stealth discontinuation: Tesla takes internal steps to permanently wind down production (e.g. permanently stands down factory lines, switches to selling off existing inventory, reassigns all team members, even if they don’t announce publicly), OR
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.0pt82.2%
- Yes+1.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $14.8M
- 24h Vol
- $297.3K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt41%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt35%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-3.0pt31%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202798%
- Before Apr 1, 202795%
- Before Jan 1, 202792%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $22.3K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt65%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 202750%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
KALSHIWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Jersey Mike's99%
- Shein98%
- Oura-1.0pt94%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $7.2K
- Clavicular sentenced to prison?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by which date?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Ohio State vs Texas
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the Tesla Cybertruck product line be discontinued??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 31% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does When will the Tesla Cybertruck product line be discontinued? resolve?
- When will the Tesla Cybertruck product line be discontinued? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will the Tesla Cybertruck product line be discontinued? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria