Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 5, 2026, 10:26 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 55%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 days ago
StaleFeb 23, 26, 11:56 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes45%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall91% match · auto | Medium | 71% | — | $169 | $5K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 55% | — | — | — | 52 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
5mo
70.3%
29.7%
65 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$301.9K
24h Vol$169
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.