Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Later than 2027 48.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 24, 1:23 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.
- This market resolves when OpenAI publicly releases a model which is in some way specialized for robotics.
- If no such model has been released by the end of 2027, it will resolve "the named outcome".
- To count, a model must be released to at least a thousand people outside of OpenAI (the general public, enterprise customers, etc).
- Internal development does not count.
- Alpha tests do not count.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will OpenAI release a robotics model??
- Manifold Markets prices Later than 2027 at 48% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will OpenAI release a robotics model? resolve?
- When will OpenAI release a robotics model? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is When will OpenAI release a robotics model? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.