Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Later than 2027 67.7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Later than 2027 67.7%Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 24, 1:23 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GPT 7 (OpenAI) release date
Manifold MarketsWhich Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a product named ChatGPT6?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
Manifold MarketsRules
OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.
- This market resolves when OpenAI publicly releases a model which is in some way specialized for robotics.
- If no such model has been released by the end of 2027, it will resolve "the named outcome".
- To count, a model must be released to at least a thousand people outside of OpenAI (the general public, enterprise customers, etc).
- Internal development does not count.
- Alpha tests do not count.
