KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2030 84%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$232.2
Low liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 4:28 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
If a fourth Austin Powers movie has been publicly released in the United States through official channels before Before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:DeadlineEntertainment WeeklyFox NewsThe InformationMSNBCSemaforBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalABCThe Hollywood ReporterReutersAxiosIMDbSpotifyNetflixVarietyCNNThe New York TimesNBCPoliticoThe Washington Postthe Associated PressCBS
- The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download.
- The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country.
- Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify.
- Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released.
- Different versions or formats of the same base content (theatrical, director's cut, extended edition) are considered the same media if the core content is substantially identical.
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast Gaming video on day 1?
- 15–17.5M+28.5pt55.5%
- 17.5–20M+26.7pt43.6%
- 20M+-29.8pt1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61.6K
- 24h Vol
- $58.7K
KALSHIEmmy winner: Outstanding Variety Series
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert+1.0pt63.1%
- Tie+3.0pt28.8%
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver-1.0pt2.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey+1.0pt55%
- Dune: Part Three12%
- The Black Ball11%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $51.5K
POLYMARKETEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
- “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”+3.5pt76.3%
- “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”+1.7pt7.2%
- “The Daily Show”+1.9pt6.2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 35+35.0pt99%
- Above 30+1.0pt99%
- Above 2599%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $254.5K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- No Bond chosen+14.6pt36%
- Jack Lowden-16.6pt20%
- Jack Barton-0.2pt12%
+21 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Austin Powers 4: Release Date?
- Kalshi prices Before 2030 at 84% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does Austin Powers 4: Release Date resolve?
- Austin Powers 4: Release Date is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Austin Powers 4: Release Date settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a fourth Austin Powers movie has been publicly released in the United States through official channels before Before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.