Given a PRC invasion which controls Taiwan for at least a month, will there be real resistance fighters, through 2034
GeopoliticsOne-OffSpaceChina8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.2%
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Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 4:05 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 6:59 AM UTC
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Through 2034, if PRC invades and Taiwan and the US's major military forces on the island are gone, i.e. no tanks and no planes remain in Taiwanese control or are operating from the island in defense, will there nevertheless still be significant guerilla resistance?
- Examples from most typical to least, after a Chinese invasion
- 1000 armed Taiwanese military special forces units hide in the hills, raiding PRC controlled cities and attacking troops <=== very typical, clear YES
- 100 armed Taiwan civilians+ex military men hide in the hills, not surrendering, but not doing much, but still shooting/raiding/killing soldiers sometimes <=== still counts as YES
- 100 possibly separate civilian individuals organizing via anonymous message boards, sending suicide drone strikes against PRC targets <=== new pattern of resistance, and still counts as YES
- ^^^ above this counts
