Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.7%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Jan 18, 26, 12:26 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the EU formally activates the Anti-Coercion Instrument (sometimes known as the trade bazooka) against the United States—meaning the Council confirms by qualified majority that US measures constitute economic coercion under Regulation 2023/2675—before January 1, 2027 CET.
- Preliminary Commission examination or political threats to use the ACI do not count; only a formal Council determination triggers resolution.
