Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 3:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 50.3%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Apr 4, 25, 10:03 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump publicly states his intention to write a relevant memoir before the market close date.
The statement must come directly from Trump himself through any public medium (speech, interview, social media post, press release, etc.).

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