Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70%
Forecasters
147
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 7:07 AM UTCOct 25, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
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PolymarketNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsRules
Third time's the charm?
- Scott Alexander has a market resolving in 2028 about whether Gary Marcus will be able to find "three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked." (Weird adversarial hacks don't count.)
- A year and a half ago, I thought maybe ChatGPT o3 was smart enough that it was there already.
- A few months later, I thought GPT-5-Thinking might've gotten there.
- So now it's been more than another year and maybe Claude Opus 5.5 is there?
- To resolve YES, that it still makes egregious errors, we need, by market close [UPDATE: By the deadline listed below], just one example I can replicate [in a Temporary Chat] (no access to my chat history) with effort set to max.
