Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 19, 26, 3:31 PM UTCJun 19, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Was/is there an ASML EUV in China on June 19th, 2026?
- Context: "U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has told senior ASML executives he’s concerned that one of the Dutch chipmaker’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines may have ended up in China.
- That would be a major breach of export controls that have barred ASML from selling EUV to China since the first Trump administration. [ASML] says no such machine exists in China and has never existed there." -- https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/19/the-us-says-asmls-top-chip-tool-may-be-in-china-asml-says-it-isnt/
- This will resolve yes/no depending on whether there is fairly conclusive (>90%) public reporting indicating that there was or was not an ASML EUV machine in China on June 19th, 2026.
- If there is not conclusive reporting either way, the market will not resolve.
- For it to resolve "Yes", it must be possible for the machine to be fully functioning within one year (eg, a permanently broken EUV machine would not qualify).