What are the current odds for Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 56.9% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? resolve?

Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 56.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 25 minutes ago

Jul 3, 26, 9:09 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the US government has materially cut ASML off from Cymer before January 1st 2030.

For this market, “cut ASML off from Cymer” means that a US government action prevents, or is clearly intended to prevent, ASML from owning, controlling, receiving, using, or relying on Cymer’s products, services, technology, personnel, IP, parts, or manufacturing capacity in a way that is material to ASML’s lithography business.
Examples that would resolve YES include:
A US law, executive order, sanctions action, export-control action, CFIUS action, court order, or agency order requiring ASML to divest, spin off, sell, firewall, or otherwise separate Cymer from ASML.
A US government action prohibiting Cymer from supplying ASML or other ASML group entities with light sources, components, maintenance, engineering support, software, IP, manufacturing services, or related technology.
ASML, Cymer, the US government, or multiple credible major news sources report that US restrictions have effectively blocked ASML from using Cymer in its lithography products or operations.