Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 16, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 12.1%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleJan 11, 24, 9:01 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Volume trend
$250Jul 152d of dataJul 16
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